DrewM
11-02-2004, 04:01 AM
http://election.princeton.edu/
This is quite interesting - it takes the polls by state and does some interesting deeper analysis with assumptions for voter turnout & undecided voters.
One other thing I read today is interesting in relation to polling - the polling companies are worried that in this election their polls may not be a true sample because they use landline phone owners as the sample pool. The 18-29 demographic is not well represented in that pool because a lot of this demographic have a cellphone but no landline phone of their own. Normally this demographic has a very low voter turnout so is not significant....but in this election there is a record level of voter registration in that demographic.
Independant polling of that demographic has a strong bias for Kerry....but will they turn out to vote in the end is the question. If they do then Kerry is going to win this race by what could end up looking like a landslide.
This is quite interesting - it takes the polls by state and does some interesting deeper analysis with assumptions for voter turnout & undecided voters.
One other thing I read today is interesting in relation to polling - the polling companies are worried that in this election their polls may not be a true sample because they use landline phone owners as the sample pool. The 18-29 demographic is not well represented in that pool because a lot of this demographic have a cellphone but no landline phone of their own. Normally this demographic has a very low voter turnout so is not significant....but in this election there is a record level of voter registration in that demographic.
Independant polling of that demographic has a strong bias for Kerry....but will they turn out to vote in the end is the question. If they do then Kerry is going to win this race by what could end up looking like a landslide.