I think we are on the brink of a world war, focused in the middle east. Tensions have been brewing for a while, and there have been a few sparks, but no big fire yet. It's only a matter of time. There will be a resolution in the middle east one way or another, and it appears to be coming soon.

Absolutely.

Soon their will be a peace treaty signed by all nations, with one ruler rising to world power.

Originally posted by jerejerebinks
Absolutely.

Soon their will be a peace treaty signed by all nations, with one ruler rising to world power. It will not be soon IMO, and a LOT of good people will die if things escalate in the Middle East.

Originally posted by Evil Homer
I think we are on the brink of a world war, focused in the middle east. Tensions have been brewing for a while, and there have been a few sparks, but no big fire yet. It's only a matter of time. There will be a resolution in the middle east one way or another, and it appears to be coming soon.

A world war between who and who ? And where would be the batlefields ?
I don't think so. I don't see nations on the verge of war. In fact i don't see any nation able of defying the US army and even less willing to do so.
Which does not mean of course that there won't be conflicts and violence in the years to come, but not in a WWI or WWII style.

Originally posted by Evil Homer
I think we are on the brink of a world war, focused in the middle east. Tensions have been brewing for a while, and there have been a few sparks, but no big fire yet. It's only a matter of time. There will be a resolution in the middle east one way or another, and it appears to be coming soon.

Okay... here's the thing. For it to be a true world war (and for it to be the scale of the other two) it would have to include major world powers like the US, China, Russia, France, Germany, Britain, etc. While I would agree that a War of the Middle East is definitely brewing, I'm not entirely certain Western and European nations would even dare to get involved unless there was an extremely clear evil side trying to conquer an extremely clear good side (i.e. Hitler vs. the Allies).

Originally posted by jerejerebinks
Absolutely.

Soon their will be a peace treaty signed by all nations, with one ruler rising to world power.

Another biblical prophesy?

I'm not so sure, but do agree that a Middle East war is very possible. With tensions on the verge of war in Isreal/Palestine and throwing into the mix Iraq problems, and Iran defiance to the nuclear commision -things will escalate to war.

Originally posted by LionelHutz
Another biblical prophesy?

Think he'll have the guts to answer? :D

Originally posted by Medea
Okay... here's the thing. For it to be a true world war (and for it to be the scale of the other two) it would have to include major world powers like the US, China, Russia, France, Germany, Britain, etc. While I would agree that a War of the Middle East is definitely brewing, I'm not entirely certain Western and European nations would even dare to get involved unless there was an extremely clear evil side trying to conquer an extremely clear good side (i.e. Hitler vs. the Allies).

That's not the main question. I don't see local powers (Syria, Iran, Israel, Egypt) getting involoved in a conventional war.

The middle east is already a war zone. Civilians and soldiers are dying each day. The only question left now is, will it expand or decrease?

FACT: We will be stuck fighting in Iraq untill the good and honerable people of Iraq are more outraged by the insurgents than they are by the American occupation. As long as they continue to harbor these murderers and put up with their violence our young people will die.

For tranny to survive, good and decent people must turn their backs and do nothing. We saw this in Nazi Germany.

The only possiblity of that would be if the entire Middle East united. Maybe through a cliphate like they once had, or some other kind of rule. But if that did happen, I could certainly see another war esclate. But then, if that did happen, and one side did get backed into a corner, what would happen when they used their nuclear weapons?

Originally posted by LionelHutz
Another biblical prophesy?

Yep. Antichrist.

Originally posted by HaVoK
It will not be soon IMO, and a LOT of good people will die if things escalate in the Middle East.


a lot of good peole have already diee in the middle east.

Originally posted by jerejerebinks
Yep. Antichrist.

Could be. Remember that Antichrist does not mean AntiGod it mearly means antichristian.

Originally posted by Dan Fussell
Could be. Remember that Antichrist does not mean AntiGod it mearly means antichristian. right again dan..........and scary too.

I'm just saying, that things in the middle east are getting heated up. And the More the temperature rises, the more countries will join the fray. As attacks on their homelands come they will be forced to retaliate. I don't think of this as really the WWIII as we conventionally think of it where there are these 2 giant sides vying for world domination, but rather as a Grand Scale house cleaning. 1 by 1 more countries will begin their own wars on terrorism. So, the wars would be both isolated, and connected.

I think we are on the brink of a major war. I think it has already begun in Iraq and Afghanistan. The next thing that will rachet thing up a notch is a strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear program. This will bring Iran into a wider war, which will involve Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Jordan. Iran will request aid from Pakistan as well, and place Musharef in an impossible position. He will have to choose between an alliance with the United States, which could easily lead to revolution in his country, and war with the United States. Since our supply routes to Afghanistan go through Pakistan, our troops will be in a precarious position there. Note that Pakistan has Nuclear weapons and F-16 fighter aircraft. Pakistan got their nuclear technology from China, with whom they also maintain a friendly relationship.
All this action would threaten China's oil imports, and thus their economy. Note that the Chinese government is in the midst of a leadership transition at the moment. With the U.S. fully involved in all the other action in the Middle East, it is also possible that China may decide they will never have a better opportunity to resolve the Taiwan issue in their favor. They may also pressure North Korea into the war to further distract the U.S. Since we have treaty obligations to defend Taiwan, we now are at war with China. Afghanistan shares a border with China as well, and Chinese troops could roll westward along the old Silk road toward the oil reserves around the Caspian Sea and possibly into the Middle East. This would bring Russia into the war as well. Strikes me as a world war.
Who the evil leader we are fighting will be determined by the propagandists once the shooting has begun. Hitler wasn't considered to be "evil" until the war began. If you don't believe that, look at the number of foreign leaders who did business and enjoyed friendly relations with him in the late 1930's. I include in this, the United States and England.

The main thing that would put a kink in this scenerio is that the leaders of China are smart enough to fear the expansion of the radical Islamic movement. True, China does not care so much for America, but their upperhand is the trade deficit and the fact that they can reason with the U.S. There is no reasoning with radical Islam.

If all-out war with the middle east ever occurs. All non-Arabic nations would have to stand together for a possible win. Israel would probably be lost in the confrontation. Many nations are now highly populated by Islamic people. A good fact is that the majority are not radical Islam. Many are good people just trying to do better for their families.

Originally posted by Dan Fussell
The main thing that would put a kink in this scenerio is that the leaders of China are smart enough to fear the expansion of the radical Islamic movement. True, China does not care so much for America, but their upperhand is the trade deficit and the fact that they can reason with the U.S. There is no reasoning with radical Islam.

If all-out war with the middle east ever occurs. All non-Arabic nations would have to stand together for a possible win. Israel would probably be lost in the confrontation. Many nations are now highly populated by Islamic people. A good fact is that the majority are not radical Islam. Many are good people just trying to do better for their families.

Good post. I think we are on the brink of making history. In that what we do in the next year or two is going to change the course of the world for years to come.

For those of you that are religious.....do your thing.

Hmm. I dont know about Israel being lost. They are pretty damn strong. They far surpass us in both their military and their technology. If they were bigger, they would probably be the dominant superpower.

I agree with you that China is concerned about the expansion of radical Islam. I fear that they may decide that the way to handle it is similair to the way they handled the religous opposition in Tibet. They move in, occupy the land, and systematically kill those who oppose them. They blow up the mosques, and force the children to be educated in Chinese schools. It might take a generation or two, but in the end they crush the opposition by assimilating it. In the meantime, they wind up with the oil.

They do have a balance of trade surplus of huge proportions with the U.S. This would only be enhanced by gaining control of the oil fields.

China has been rebuilding and modernizing their military for the last two decades. They have come up with a new doctrine in organizing their military industrial complex. The military owns the factories that produce the weapons. They employ soldiers to build their own weapons. This eliminates the problems of poorly tested and shoodily built weapons. It also means that the troops know how the weapons are built, and can repair or rebuild them themselves.

It also minimizes political wrangling over what weapons are built, and the testing process involves testing under real world conditions. The object isn't to sell the weapons, but to expose any flaws in them.

They have seadily increased their military spending by 10% to 15% a year every year for a couple decades.

China in short is rapidly emerging as a superpower that in the next century will rival the United States. The old Soviet Union is no more, and Russia, while it is still a force, is not the power that it once was. They have a large nuclear capability, but their conventional forces are poorly trained and equipped by superpower standards.

As China emerges more and more as our main rival, conflict is inevitable. I can't think of a single historical example of the emergence of a new superpower without a war. When England emerged to replace Spain as the largest colonial empire there was war. When the U.S. replaced them, there was World War II. I fear the emergence of China will lead to World War III.

Homer, Ever stirred up an ant bed? The Arabs could rush in Israel the same way. No matter how strong your air power, when your borders are breeched its man to man. Israel is surrounded by enemies and greatly outnumbered. All out attack would destroy them.

Yes Imagineer, Speaking of occupation. I have, for years, spoken of the silent occupation of America. Once you have enough numbers and financial leverage there is no need for war.

Imagineer, if China did in fact attack the Middle East, my idea would be that they would put their differences aside, much like Western Europe in WWII, and press back against their oppressors. This would cause a new Islamic Empire like in the Dark Ages. Not only that, but they would be even more powerful due to thier monopoly on oil. I also have a question as to India's role in this. Would they take the side of China against Pakastan? Or realize that the future enemy would be China and attack them while they are preoccupide with the Muslium states? Also would Russia side with China due to the Communist background of both countries? I'll agree that if there is to be a WWIII that it would start in Asia, but I doubt your idea's of what would happen.

And about Israel, yes, an all out attack would destroy them. But I hope that the Arabs are not that stupid. Israel has nuclear weapons, it's confirmed. And those weapons are aimed at...guess where....Mecca. There's a frightening thought. So unless the Muslums don't wish their holy city to become a radioactive pile of dust, I doubt they will attack. Though...if they do, and Israel does distroy Mecca, the Musliums would turn on all of Israel's supporters...namely the USA. Then NATO would have to get involved and....that's just one frightening concept. *sighs* I do so hope that no world war would ever happen again.

SHIT. I knew I shouldn't have filled in that bunker we dug under the house back in 1962.

I don't think I'd enjoy having glow in the dark skin.

Originally posted by Dan Fussell
Homer, Ever stirred up an ant bed? The Arabs could rush in Israel the same way. No matter how strong your air power, when your borders are breeched its man to man. Israel is surrounded by enemies and greatly outnumbered. All out attack would destroy them.

But the arab states did do that. Right after Israel became a country, 6 countries attacked them.

Locke, I postulate initially at least that the Chinese would be on the Arab side. The sides as I see them initially would be the United States, Israel, the new Afghan government, and England. Entering later on our side would be Russia and India. Some of industrialized Europe would also be drawn in on our side eventually, although I think most would remain neutral initially. On the other side I see the Islamic world and China.
In the long run, I believe that suppressing radical Islam would be the policy pursued by China, but initially they would enter as friendly forces, fighting on the side of the Arabs against the Israeli's and their allies.

One of the reasons I believe this is that Pakistan recieved much of their help in acquiring nuclear weapons from China. China is also assisting the Iranians indirectly through Pakistan.
Our forces in Afghanistan would be in a desperate situation in this scenario. Their supply routes through Pakistan would be cut off suddenly, and they would face about a million Chinese soldiers coming through the passes.

This is the initial thrust. With additional Chinese reinforcements moving from the Chinese interior. At the same time a full scale war would be raging in Israel. The Straits of Hormuz would be mined, and the oil exports coming from the area would be cut off. In the short run, the Strategic Oil Reserve would allow our military to function, but stricy oil rationing would be in effect in the U.S.

The Israeli threat to use nuclear weapons would be countered by Arab threats to do the same to Jerusalem. This would keep the war conventional at least in the initial stages.

I know that this sounds farfetched. In 1913, it would have sounded farfetched to suppose that a terrorist attack in the Balkans would lead to World War I. It is the secret treaties, and the necessity for economic resources that cause major wars. Both are present now in Asia. Events could easily spiral out of control.

I hope very much that they don't, but the most constructive action I could think of at the moment to forestall this would be to put pressure on Israel not to act against Iran. Unfortunately we are selling them the bombs they need to carry out the action instead.

What I fear most is that our President believes the book of Revelations, and that it is his job to support the rebuilding of the Jewish Temple at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. In the process the Dome on the Rock Mosque would be destroyed since they occupy the same site. The rebuilding of the temple is the sign of the end times, and the precursor to Armaggeddon in the belief of many fundamentalist Christians. Ariel Sharon already laid the cornerstone for the new temple while the peace talks were going on at Camp David. Now the peace process has collapsed, and Ariel Sharon is Prime Minister of Israel. He recieved large campaign contributions from fundamentalist Christians in the United States.

I think this next election may be the only chance to avert a world war. I hope we have that long.

Imagineer, first of all, what makes you think that the Arab states and China would be on the same side? Iran has yet to forgive us for other things we did, and we didn't even invade them. So what makes you think that they would just turn the other cheek when China attacks?

Also Africa, with it's weath of resources would ally behind the Islamic States, giving them plunty of supplies to continue the assult, with the Middle East's oil and Africa's food.

One other problem I see with your senario would be Russia. I think that they would join with the Chinese. China not attacking and the thought of taking Iran and other countries that have helped the Chechians would be too good to resist for the Russians. Plus China would gain plunty of land for their over populated nation to inhabit. One of the first things that would happen then would be the reformation of the Warsaw Pact.

I think that NATO would have to ally with the Chinese simply because of Israel. Israel would go first because of the overwelming hatred toward the Jewish state. When backed into a corner, they would, in fact, nuke Mecca because what have they got to lose? This would insight a religious ferver toward the US and the Western world. At this, the Muslums would attack the US and therefor have a war on three fronts. They would have attacks from the west, from the north, and from the east. At the end, when it seems that all the Musliums were sure to lose, they would send nuclear missles to the most populous cities in their enemy's countries. Moscow, Beijing, New York, Washington, Paris, gone in a flash. This would distroy the world economy and the world power's governments. Pray to whatever deity you worship that that never happens.

China and Russia hate each other.
India and pakastan have a huge islamic population.
Africa is mostly christan with some muslims.

If it became a muslim - christisn war china would probubly side with us. They hate any kind of mixing of church and state and muslims just can't seam to get away from the church-state thing. They also need/want our technology and trade. And they know that with the two superpowers fighting together we could wipe out the islamic countries and split the oil between us.

Just a guess.

I think that Iran, at least owes China indirectly for nuclear technology. Pakistan owes them quite directly for the designs of their nuclear weapons. Pakistan has been sharing this technology with Iran.

Also, I postulated this to begin with an attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear program using bombs supplied by the U.S. The United States and Iran have not been friendly since the Islamic revolution in Iran, and the hostage crisis. Along the way, a U.S. Navy warship in the Persian Gulf shot down a civilian airliner belonging to the Iranians, killing all the civilians on board. They don't like the U.S. much. I could go on citing earlier history if you would like.

If they felt that Israel had attacked them, with the encouragement and support of the United States, the Chinese would be welcomed as allies in the war agains Israel and the United States. Many Arab nations would feel the same.
Russia has considerable interests in it's old colonies or should I say republics. There is considerable oil there, and they wield a great deal of economic influence. China wants that oil. So does Russia.

I might add, that while both were formerly Communist countries, they were never all that friendly. They fought at least one major border skirmish back in the 1960's with about a million troops on each side, trying to resolve a dispute about where the border ought to be. About the only thing they had in common was a marxist philosophy. Now the Soviet Union has disintegrated, and Russia is Capitalist. The Chinese remain nominally Communist, but allow free enterprise. In fact, the government controls key industries in the defense sector, but otherwise the economy is basically free enterprise.

What China wants is natural resources, particulairly oil. They are building a pipeline across Asia through Uzbekistan toward the Caspian Sea oil right now. Interestingly, our air base in Uzbekistan, which we built for the war in Afghanistan, is about twenty miles from the pipeline. An interesting coincidence?

The best way for China to secure the oil is to help the Arabs fight us. Only later would their control/influence be felt. This, by the way, is much the same way that the British and Americans gained access to the oilfields around the Persian Gulf. A British military officer, T.E. Lawrence, helped organize and supply Arabs with arms to revolt against the Ottoman Empire during WW I. The British then drew the current national boundaries, and signed oil deals along with the Americans.

Remember the old dictum, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." The Chinese will enter as friends of the Arabs. Only later will the cost of friendship become apparent.

Imagineer, your username is well chosen . But your scenario is total fantasy.

First, any state to state confrontation in Middle east is now very unlikely. I don't see Iran or Syria taking the chance of a direct confrontation with the US army, and Israel will rely on the US pressure and international laws to control Iran's nuclear program rather than on force.

Second, the supposed alliance between arab country just can't happen. There is no cohesion between these countries. Iran is the only shiite country and no other would help them. Syria is isolated. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan depend on the USA nearly as much as Israel does.

Third, Russia and China are totally unwilling to get involved in any war out of their borders. Their only concern is economics. They would have nothing to win in a confrontation with NATO.

No, really I don't see a world war coming. I see a lot of trouble, terrorism and local liberation wars, repression, population moved and provoked hunger. I see local, very dirty and bloody wars to control local resources, like Coltan in Congo.

"The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, formally Zaire, is complex, complicated by the struggle for power over the country's vast resources by actors within and outside Congo. In recent years, one particular mineral, coltan, has been at the center of the fight. The precious ore is mined in rebel-controlled areas at the expense of national parks and depletion of wildlife. Coltan is a key element in cell phones, computer chips, nuclear reactors, and PlayStations. The market for the mineral has greatly increased in recent years, exacerbating conflict in Congo. "

(http://www.american.edu/TED/ice/congo-coltan.htm)

This is the real WWIII. It has already begun and its major actors are local militias and rebel, who use weapons smuggled by rich countries and are manipulated by secret services and big companies. They involove no spectacular battles or high tech weapons, their victims are rarely seen on TV, but their casualties are higher than these of the Middle east conflicts.
Think about it the next time you use your cell phone or your Playstation.

Originally posted by Evil Homer
I think we are on the brink of a world war, focused in the middle east. Tensions have been brewing for a while, and there have been a few sparks, but no big fire yet. It's only a matter of time. There will be a resolution in the middle east one way or another, and it appears to be coming soon.

It won't happen. I don't think the Middle East will unite, and even if they do there won't be another conventional war like World War II or something like that.

I know. I posted something to that effect later on. Basically, it will be like a giant house cleaning.

The middle east will not unite. They hate each other and their politics is too closely alligned with their religion. The two main branches of Islam hate each other.

The muslim world is all about hate. Their religion and their politics have kept them in the third world for centuries. Even with current technology their religion and politics are keeping them in the third world. Until they can reconcile all that hatred and turn their energies twords building a better world for their people; there is no hope for the middle east to find peace. Downtrodden, poor, uneducated people feed on hatred. They are easy to recruit as terrorists because they have everything to win and nothing to lose.

I disagree with the idea that Islam is all about hatred. Certainly the current culture in the Middle East has a strong element of hatred toward the west. The history of conflict dating back to the crusades, and continuing through the colonial period into the present has given them little reason to trust us.

There are also clan rivalries and border disputes that go back centuries. These things do make it difficult to unite the various factions. Certainly the west has acted to stir up such rivalries in order to keep the area in a state of disunity, because that makes it easier to exploit the oil resources at the prices we would prefer.

Is it possible for the area to unite? Yes it is, with the proper combination of an outside threat and a charismatic leader. The Greek city states, who fought each other constantly, were able to unite in the face of invasion from Persia. Under the leadership of Alexander the Great they defeated Persia and conquered vast territories.

Is that leader out there? I don't know. It would have to be someone who is able to defy the west successfully. OBL might qualify if the threat to the area was great enough. He has the military experience of fighting the Russians in Afghanistan, and of fighting the U.S. since then. At a time when much of the Arab street sees their governments collaborating with the U.S. at worst, or at best impotent in opposing our policies in Iraq and Israel, he may seem like a viable alternative.

I do not think the current governments will unite, but a mass movement across the region could topple many governments. Each time we intervene and interfere in the region, each time we set up another puppet regime, each time we invade another country, each time we support Israel in the suppression of the Palestinians, we inflame public opinion against us. It could eventually explode.

I think it is interesting to contrast the Middle East today to the way it was during the dark ages in Europe. At that time, it was the center of learning and culture. It was far more advanced, and Islam spread rapidly. Islam stood for education, religous tolerance, art and culture. What changed that was the rise of the west in the renissance. The looting of the resources of the New World and the Far East gave the west unparalelled military and economic power. They broke down the Ottoman Empire slowly, starting in the 1500's and culminating in it's eventual dimemberment following World War I. I think it is possible for another such Empire to arise. It would only require another Saladin.

Good post imagineer.

"It would only require another Saladin."

That's a huge "only". The more militant the movement gets, the more shortsighted they are. Some of al Sadr's followers actually believ he is the next Mahdi. As long as they throw their lot behind such people, there will never be another like Saladin.

Originally posted by Imagineer
I disagree with the idea that Islam is all about hatred. (…)
I think it is interesting to contrast the Middle East today to the way it was during the dark ages in Europe.

(…)

I think it is possible for another such Empire to arise. It would only require another Saladin.

Very good post. I still disagree with you on the (at least short term) possibility of a mass street movement that would change govts and meke the middle east unite. Most of these countries anr dictaure with a strong police and are not ready to give power to the street. And even in the case of a street med revolution, we know (as we saw in Iran) that soon a new power emerges, as dictatorial as the previous one, and that common people are not the winners.

Echo 2- I was suprised by your post about "the muslim world being all about hate". You usually have more balanced views ! Or maybe I misundestood what you mean ?
But if you've been travelling in muslim countries, or if you've met muslim people, you must know that they are usually really kind people and have a great cultural tradition of hospitality.
I am not trying to say that there is no hatred and violence there of course but such a general statement is IMO not helping to understand muslim people.

I would habve to agree that I don't see a Saladin out there. I would also say that sometimes the times produce the leader. It is possible someone could arise, someone who would fit the times. I think it is impossible to know when this might occur.

I spent some time today pondering whether a great leader would always emerge as a great leader, or whether they need a great threat to meet in order to realize their historical importance.

I guess what I'm asking is whether Alexander the Great would have been able to unite the Greek city states and conquer his empire without King Darius, and the Persian Empire as a threat?Would Saladin have created his Empire without the Crusaders? Are these relatively ordinary men who rise to greatness because of the situation in which they find themselves, or are they exceptional men who manipulate whatever the situation is to their advantage.