When the thirteen colonies were still a part of England, a Scottish professor wrote about the fall of the Athenian republic over two thousand years previous to that time:


"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship.

The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage."

Alexander Tyler

Sound familiar?

yes it does, very nice.

I have said all along we are falling right in line with the fall of Rome. It wont be long now.

1. Slavery had weakened the moral fiber of the citizens and a large discontented mass of people had become disenfranchised.

2. There had been a decline in the traditional Roman (American)citizenry.

3. Moral decay was evident as depicted in its literature, amusements, and lifestyles that often portrayed gratuitous sex and violence.

4. Patriotism declined as people lost their allegiance to the state.


Economic Causes.

1. As productivity declined, Rome became more dependent on foreign products.

2. A breakdown in the labor force occurred as the traditional work ethic declined.

3. The infrastructure of the cities declined and began a steady decay.

4. A balance of trade deficit began to occur.

5. The cost of government, including the military and welfare, became burdensome.

6. Class economic warfare broke out between the rich and poor.

7. Parts of the empire were not taxed while others were overtaxed.

8. The small farm all but disappeared

Sounds like a winner - but it's filled with holes.

Most of the great civilizations lasted a lot longer than 200 years and fell apart for reasons a million miles away from realities in the 21st century

We are not living 2000 years ago or more, we are living in today. There is no comparision.

But then again, History does seem to repeat itself.

Sorry about using a cliché but i find it most appropriate.

Older civilizations took longer to fall partly because information moved really slowly back then. Today, when a development occurs, news of it spreads virtually around the world within minutes. Many problems that existed back them also exists today, namely poverty, illness, crime, and moral degradation. I'm not saying that things will happen exactly like they did in Rome, but the indicators show that there are similarities.

I wouldn't focus on the part about the years. To me, this is the crucial part:

It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship.



This is happening today in a big way. Americans today have the attitude that the government exists to give them something for nothing. As a result, our government is becoming crippled due to the financial drain imposed by special interests groups. Until this yoke is cast, our government will, at best, be handicapped, and at worst sink into a financial abyss, where it becomes a bigger and bigger beast that requires larger and larger amounts of money to continue on its path. That will cause it to become corrupt, as the empires of old did, and I can easily see how the US could meet that same fate.

Our population's attitude is all wrong. Until the public understands accountability, we will not be able to keep up the amazing pace that the United States has set for itself over the 20th century.

The above statements about a weakening U.S. has been my message all along.
This is the basic reason I tell you of a conspiricy of World domination that controls our government in the background.
The U.S.A. will die on its present course.
The conspiritors know this course cannot be stopped due to American apathy.
When the most powerful nation falls something must be on standby to replace it. The super wealthy controllers do not fall.
Only nations. All that is needed is a headquarters .
Home address does not matter.
I have encouraged you to look at situations with greater depth.
When history says a civilizations power fell, there was a continuation. All the people did not die overnight. The poor merely kept on keeping on and the wealthy transitioned.
When Rome (fell) notice that the Roman Church surged and ruled for another 600 years. The power mongers merely relocated their backing. Look at history in a new way and the present becomes clear.

Geeez ... youz guys sure picked a great time to throw out a deep-thinker's thread like this one.

I've been working on one of my fantasy stories all nite and had to toss everything I did -- it's called writer's block and I have it wholesale right now.

Anyway, FWIW, I'll give it a shot.

I particularily enjoyed Trav's laundry list on the Roman empire. Kinda like the decline of the roman empire in a nutshell. Good stuff and I agree with it's entirety albeit I'd add the fact the RE had grown to the size of 60 million and was too large to defend with centralized armies. That made regions easy prey for all the nomad and barbarian tribes that plummeled the empire from all sides.

Drew is right on too. Although he said it differently, my take is that 200 years is too short of a time period to judge any part of history, at least in a meaningful way. Our own country is 200 years old and the rest of the world has not judged us as of yet. Opinions yes -- judgement no.

Just about everyone, Karen, evil, trav et al point out the downside to socialism which does exist in our country to some extent.

I find those thoughts interesting as well the prediction of the professor outlined in the original post. with the empahsis on the sequence of events with which (s)he premises the quote.

'bondage to spiritual faith to great courage to liberty to abundance to selfishness to complacency to apathy to dependency to bondage'

That, IMHO, is a classic example of what is known as the 'class struggle' -- a set of events well studied by socialists over the years which simply predicts a thesis will be challenged by a antithesis and the remaining result will be the synthesis. Of course you recognize that as the works of karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, two socialist writers who I am not defending - just quoting, explaining why capitalism could not survive against socialism.

Dialectical materialism is also part of their grand scheme which means society will be driven more by items of value (materials?) than by issues of though and reason. I guess a modern day example would be the SUV. Everyone must want one cause everyone has one. Given the fact that we seem to not care as much about what or how the other person gets his stuff (earns it, steals it, welfare, whatever) as long as we get ours kinda proves them right on that note.

On the other side of the coin, I could poke all kind of holes in the class struggle theory such as "how long will it take to complete a cycle?"
This brings us back to the 200 years idea. Is that enough time to transform a society regardless of the process?"

Another question would be ... "what guarantees that the cycle doesn't start over after it completes itself the first time and ends up right back where it began -- the professors argument in slightly different words and again how long would that take?"

According to what I read here, our country is indeed in transition from some state of mind to another, whether it's socialism or something else. We seem to all agree on that.
So the big question is when does it come to frution and who ends up on top?

Just my 2 cents.

Dop

Lungdop it will possibly be within half a century.
Just a guess because of the rapidity of changes in the last half century.

As to who will be on top.
The rich and powerful that have prepared.
Usually backing a religious faction. Possibly Muslim. in India.

Two remarks :
1- the USA are not a "civilization". They are a nation. If we want to speak about the decline of a civilization, it should be the whole western civilization - with its economical, political and ideological content. In a way, with globalization, this is becoming the universal civilization. The major threat on this civilization is its own frenzy of growth - one day or another, it will meet its end through we live on a planet with limited resources.
2- For Blip if he reads this : see how this thread supports my theory of the economics being now the main way of considering the world. Most of the opinions stated here are based on economics.

Dan

I think you're right ... Muslim.

Dop

Bumping this thread. I would be interested in seeing our last crop of socialists comment on this prediction.

Ahhhhh, silence from the socialists. I thought so!

Well, from this, it seems we dont have much time left until our economic and political structure collapses into ruin only to be rebuilt by a ruthless dictator who will rule mercilessly until ther is a revolt and the people take over again to make yet another democracy which will inevitably fail and once that happens all life will cease to exist due to a massive war brought on by the rulers of this country in a desperate attempt to reclaim power.

So, in conclusion: Smoke em while you got em!