Frogger
11-27-2007, 06:30 AM
The results of a recent Zogby poll illustrate what is a problem not only for Hillary Clinton but for all the major candidates of either of the two major parties, Democrat and Republican.
The majority of people who vote in primaries are activists or people who are more interested in politics than the average citizen. Among Democrats these people tend to lean left and among Republicans they tend to lean right. This means that in order to win their party's primary and be the nominee a candidate must be either right or left of the general electorate. This problem seems to affect Democrats more than Republicans, probably because the general electorate tends to lean a bit to the right.
As the campaign for the Democrat nomination has proceeded each of the major candidates has had to swing further to the left in order to keep pace with his/her opponents. This leftward swing has taken them further and further from the slight right/center position of the general electorate. The results of that are beginning to be seen. When Ms. Clinton spoke as a centrist her poll numbers were much higher among the general public but lower among Democrats likely to vote in a primary. She has had no choice but to start talking more like a left leaning Democrat in order to win the nomination. By doing so her numbers among probable primary voters have gone up while her numbers among the general voting population have gone down.
She is caugh between a political Scylla and Charybdis.
The same thing will probably affect the Republican candidates but to a lesser degree since they will have to start leaning more and more to the right in order to insure nomination.
Watch the two parties and their candidates move further and further from the center as the nominations get closer, This will be especially true after one candidate wins the first state primary. The losers will quickly take more and more extreme positions in order to win the next states.
(Reuters) - Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton trails five top Republican presidential contenders in general election match-ups, a drop in support from this summer, according to a poll released on Monday.
Clinton's top Democratic rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, still lead Republicans in hypothetical match-ups ahead of the November 4, 2008, presidential election, the survey by Zogby Interactive showed.
Clinton, a New York senator who has been at the top of the Democratic pack in national polls in the 2008 race, trails Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee by three to five percentage points in the direct matches.
In July, Clinton narrowly led McCain, an Arizona senator, and held a five-point lead over former New York Mayor Giuliani, a six-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Thompson and a 10-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.
She was not matched against the fast-rising Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, in the July poll.
The results come as other national polls show the race for the Democratic nomination tightening five weeks before the first contest in Iowa, which kicks off the state-by-state nomination battles in each party.
Some Democrats have expressed concerns about the former first lady's electability in a race against Republicans. The survey showed Clinton not performing as well as Obama and Edwards among independents and younger voters, pollster John Zogby said.
"The questions about her electability have always been there, but as we get close this suggests that is a problem," Zogby said.
Obama, an Illinois senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, both hold narrow leads over the Republican contenders in the hypothetical 2008 match-ups.
"It all points to a very competitive general election at a time when many people think the Democrats are going to win the White House," Zogby said.
The poll of 9,355 people had a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point. The interactive poll surveys individuals who have registered to take part in online polls.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2645320920071127?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true
The majority of people who vote in primaries are activists or people who are more interested in politics than the average citizen. Among Democrats these people tend to lean left and among Republicans they tend to lean right. This means that in order to win their party's primary and be the nominee a candidate must be either right or left of the general electorate. This problem seems to affect Democrats more than Republicans, probably because the general electorate tends to lean a bit to the right.
As the campaign for the Democrat nomination has proceeded each of the major candidates has had to swing further to the left in order to keep pace with his/her opponents. This leftward swing has taken them further and further from the slight right/center position of the general electorate. The results of that are beginning to be seen. When Ms. Clinton spoke as a centrist her poll numbers were much higher among the general public but lower among Democrats likely to vote in a primary. She has had no choice but to start talking more like a left leaning Democrat in order to win the nomination. By doing so her numbers among probable primary voters have gone up while her numbers among the general voting population have gone down.
She is caugh between a political Scylla and Charybdis.
The same thing will probably affect the Republican candidates but to a lesser degree since they will have to start leaning more and more to the right in order to insure nomination.
Watch the two parties and their candidates move further and further from the center as the nominations get closer, This will be especially true after one candidate wins the first state primary. The losers will quickly take more and more extreme positions in order to win the next states.
(Reuters) - Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton trails five top Republican presidential contenders in general election match-ups, a drop in support from this summer, according to a poll released on Monday.
Clinton's top Democratic rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, still lead Republicans in hypothetical match-ups ahead of the November 4, 2008, presidential election, the survey by Zogby Interactive showed.
Clinton, a New York senator who has been at the top of the Democratic pack in national polls in the 2008 race, trails Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee by three to five percentage points in the direct matches.
In July, Clinton narrowly led McCain, an Arizona senator, and held a five-point lead over former New York Mayor Giuliani, a six-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Thompson and a 10-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.
She was not matched against the fast-rising Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, in the July poll.
The results come as other national polls show the race for the Democratic nomination tightening five weeks before the first contest in Iowa, which kicks off the state-by-state nomination battles in each party.
Some Democrats have expressed concerns about the former first lady's electability in a race against Republicans. The survey showed Clinton not performing as well as Obama and Edwards among independents and younger voters, pollster John Zogby said.
"The questions about her electability have always been there, but as we get close this suggests that is a problem," Zogby said.
Obama, an Illinois senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, both hold narrow leads over the Republican contenders in the hypothetical 2008 match-ups.
"It all points to a very competitive general election at a time when many people think the Democrats are going to win the White House," Zogby said.
The poll of 9,355 people had a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point. The interactive poll surveys individuals who have registered to take part in online polls.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2645320920071127?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true