Frogger
10-31-2007, 07:46 AM
Despite the crowing of some Democrats and the gloom and doom of some Republicans the results of the next presidential election have not already been decided.
Glimmers Of A Republican Victory
By: James G. WIles, For The Bulletin
10/30/2007
While the Democrats and their media allies search for some way to pin the California wildfires on George Bush and the Republicans, something far more significant is happening.
It's beginning to occur to the Democrats that they can lose the 2008 elections. Two months ago, this was unthinkable. But now, the trend on the ground in Iraq has reversed. And, second, with the administration and the California Republican state government's competent response to a major national disaster and Louisiana voters' election of a Republican governor, the ghost of Katrina may be dissipating.
There go the Democrats' two most winning issues.
In hindsight, New Orleans was sui generic. A corrupt and incompetent city government and a corrupt and incompetent state government combined to inflict a disaster on the Crescent City's most vulnerable citizens - whom the Democrats claim, uniquely, to serve. This reality hit home with voters because of the stark contrast between the images on cable TV this week and the nightmare of two years ago.
Then there's the marked difference between the recovery efforts in Mississippi and Louisiana. In Mississippi, Gov. Haley Barbour and the Republicans have substantially rebuilt the Gulf Coast. In New Orleans, recovery efforts have floundered amid Democrat corruption, criminality and incompetence. With a year to go until the national elections, incoming Louisiana Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal can do a great deal to help the GOP.
Mr. Jindal is the GOP's new rock star. If successful, it's easy to picture Gov. Jindal giving the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention, just as another new actor on the scene, Barack Obama, did at the Democrat Convention in 2004.
If, as expected, Hillary Clinton secures the Democrat nomination, she's far from unbeatable. Newt Gingrich has given Republicans some valuable advice: Personal attacks on Mrs. Clinton won't work. Voters already know all the negatives about her. And, despite that, she's leading her closest Democratic rival by 30 points.
So acting like Bob Dole in 1996 and asking, "Where's the outrage?" is a recipe for GOP defeat. The way for a strong GOP candidate to beat Mrs. Clinton is on the merits:
* At a time when the nation needs to be brought together, Mrs. Clinton is the most divisive and polarizing figure in American politics.
* If Mrs. Clinton 44 is elected, the presidency will have been controlled by the same two families for potentially 28 years. Do we really want dynasties in this country? Is America really like Argentina where, for the second time, a president's wife has just been elected to succeed him?
* The policies that the Democrats and Mrs. Clinton advocate don't enjoy the support of the American people.
Fought this way, and with victory in Iraq, Mrs. Clinton's triumphalism will evaporate. There are, however, at least two caveats to this scenario.
One, of course, is Iraq and the wider war with Islamic jihadism. The war remains a conundrum.
So far, Bush and the Republican minority in Congress have held on to frustrate the Democrats' efforts to lose Iraq. By next November, this will be perceived as either a profile in courage or suicidal folly. Which way the public's judgment will go will be dictated by results on the battlefield.
What helps Republicans is that the American people prefer victory. If current trends in Iraq continue, in 2008 the electorate will remember Harry Reid's pronouncing the Iraq war as "lost." And Mrs. Clinton's telling Gen. David Petraeus that his report required the "willing suspension of disbelief."
Lately, the leading Democratic presidential candidates have begun hedging their bets. However, Republican candidates can just say: "Let's go to the videotape" - if conditions on the ground in Iraq allow it. And, as in Spain in 2004, expect Osama's boys to try to influence the American elections.
That said, it's unlikely that President Bush's political standing will rebound until after he leaves office. The most President Bush can hope for is that, like Harry Truman, his reputation will grow with time.
But if the Republicans succeed holding the presidency, the GOP will have achieved something neither national party has done in wartime since the Second World War.
Consider:
* In 1952, in the midst of the Korean War and with the lowest poll ratings in history (still so today), President Truman lost the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Estes Kefauver and dropped out of the race.
* In 1968, LBJ dropped out of the race after nearly losing the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Eugene McCarthy in the wake of the Tet Offensive.
* In 1992, after smashing Iraq in the First Gulf War, Bush 41 nevertheless lost to Bill Clinton.
Bush 41's loss to Clinton 42 is the other caveat. Like Winston Churchill after World War II, a victorious leader lost because of a recession in the economy. This is the alternative scenario that today most threatens GOP prospects in 2008.
So, in this winter of Republican discontent, here's a recipe for good cheer: competence, no new taxes, no activist judges, smaller, honest government and victory.
Don't count the R's out yet!
http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=18970072&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=576361&rfi=6
Glimmers Of A Republican Victory
By: James G. WIles, For The Bulletin
10/30/2007
While the Democrats and their media allies search for some way to pin the California wildfires on George Bush and the Republicans, something far more significant is happening.
It's beginning to occur to the Democrats that they can lose the 2008 elections. Two months ago, this was unthinkable. But now, the trend on the ground in Iraq has reversed. And, second, with the administration and the California Republican state government's competent response to a major national disaster and Louisiana voters' election of a Republican governor, the ghost of Katrina may be dissipating.
There go the Democrats' two most winning issues.
In hindsight, New Orleans was sui generic. A corrupt and incompetent city government and a corrupt and incompetent state government combined to inflict a disaster on the Crescent City's most vulnerable citizens - whom the Democrats claim, uniquely, to serve. This reality hit home with voters because of the stark contrast between the images on cable TV this week and the nightmare of two years ago.
Then there's the marked difference between the recovery efforts in Mississippi and Louisiana. In Mississippi, Gov. Haley Barbour and the Republicans have substantially rebuilt the Gulf Coast. In New Orleans, recovery efforts have floundered amid Democrat corruption, criminality and incompetence. With a year to go until the national elections, incoming Louisiana Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal can do a great deal to help the GOP.
Mr. Jindal is the GOP's new rock star. If successful, it's easy to picture Gov. Jindal giving the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention, just as another new actor on the scene, Barack Obama, did at the Democrat Convention in 2004.
If, as expected, Hillary Clinton secures the Democrat nomination, she's far from unbeatable. Newt Gingrich has given Republicans some valuable advice: Personal attacks on Mrs. Clinton won't work. Voters already know all the negatives about her. And, despite that, she's leading her closest Democratic rival by 30 points.
So acting like Bob Dole in 1996 and asking, "Where's the outrage?" is a recipe for GOP defeat. The way for a strong GOP candidate to beat Mrs. Clinton is on the merits:
* At a time when the nation needs to be brought together, Mrs. Clinton is the most divisive and polarizing figure in American politics.
* If Mrs. Clinton 44 is elected, the presidency will have been controlled by the same two families for potentially 28 years. Do we really want dynasties in this country? Is America really like Argentina where, for the second time, a president's wife has just been elected to succeed him?
* The policies that the Democrats and Mrs. Clinton advocate don't enjoy the support of the American people.
Fought this way, and with victory in Iraq, Mrs. Clinton's triumphalism will evaporate. There are, however, at least two caveats to this scenario.
One, of course, is Iraq and the wider war with Islamic jihadism. The war remains a conundrum.
So far, Bush and the Republican minority in Congress have held on to frustrate the Democrats' efforts to lose Iraq. By next November, this will be perceived as either a profile in courage or suicidal folly. Which way the public's judgment will go will be dictated by results on the battlefield.
What helps Republicans is that the American people prefer victory. If current trends in Iraq continue, in 2008 the electorate will remember Harry Reid's pronouncing the Iraq war as "lost." And Mrs. Clinton's telling Gen. David Petraeus that his report required the "willing suspension of disbelief."
Lately, the leading Democratic presidential candidates have begun hedging their bets. However, Republican candidates can just say: "Let's go to the videotape" - if conditions on the ground in Iraq allow it. And, as in Spain in 2004, expect Osama's boys to try to influence the American elections.
That said, it's unlikely that President Bush's political standing will rebound until after he leaves office. The most President Bush can hope for is that, like Harry Truman, his reputation will grow with time.
But if the Republicans succeed holding the presidency, the GOP will have achieved something neither national party has done in wartime since the Second World War.
Consider:
* In 1952, in the midst of the Korean War and with the lowest poll ratings in history (still so today), President Truman lost the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Estes Kefauver and dropped out of the race.
* In 1968, LBJ dropped out of the race after nearly losing the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Eugene McCarthy in the wake of the Tet Offensive.
* In 1992, after smashing Iraq in the First Gulf War, Bush 41 nevertheless lost to Bill Clinton.
Bush 41's loss to Clinton 42 is the other caveat. Like Winston Churchill after World War II, a victorious leader lost because of a recession in the economy. This is the alternative scenario that today most threatens GOP prospects in 2008.
So, in this winter of Republican discontent, here's a recipe for good cheer: competence, no new taxes, no activist judges, smaller, honest government and victory.
Don't count the R's out yet!
http://www.thebulletin.us/site/news.cfm?newsid=18970072&BRD=2737&PAG=461&dept_id=576361&rfi=6