The Goreite prophets of doom warned us that Global Warming would cause greatly increased hurricane activity. Along with causing everything from crop failures to genital herpes Global Warming was going to mean more, and more powerful hurricanes. Global Warming was the cause of Hurricane Katrina and Katrina was just the first in an unending series of super-hurricanes.

So where are they? 2007 is one of the quietest years on record when considering storm activity. No hurricanes have hit the continental United States. In fact, no strong tropical storms have hit the continental United States.

Sorry Al, but it looks like the only wind around here is being generated by you.



2007 Yearly Tropical Cyclone Activity to Date
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By: Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University
Cross Post at Climate Audit (h/t) Steve McIntyre

Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. For the North Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Noel is currently too weak to impact any of these results. However, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season ends on November 30.

2007 lowest September activity on record since 1977

2006 and 2007 lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

No hurricanes have hit the continental United States. In fact, no strong tropical storms have hit the continental United States.


This statement is so cherry-picked, it's ridiculous. Ask Mexico or any of the Carribean Islands if it was a quiet year. Not to mention, looking at one year's data is the wrong way to approach statistical changes and you damn well know it.

As for it being a "quiet year," that's just a flat out lie. The average number of named storms in the Atlantic is 11 and there have been 14. There have been TWO class 5 hurricanes this year. As someone who grew up on the gulf coast, I know class 5 hurricanes are rare, and TWO of them in the same year is extremely rare.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season

I know it's convenient that you want to restrict the data to the United States, or to a particular month, in order to accomplish your political agenda, but you noticeably fail to acknowledge that hurricane activity is not related to political boundaries.

This Republican stooge stuff is really getting old, Frogger. Don't expect civility from me when you actively promote misinformation.

Btw, which is it Frogger, is the Earth not warming at all today? Or is the warming not caused by humans today? Do you see how one day you try to say there is no warming (like today) and some days you say there is warming, but it's "natural?"

It's odd, isn't it. It only makes sense once someone realizes that you view the world through Limbaugh-colored glasses.

The earth may be warming, whats your point? If it didnt warm we would still have glaciers in California. Those retread thousands of years ago during a period of global warming. or maybe you would prefer to call it a return to normal climate :rolleyes:

The earth may be warming, whats your point? If it didnt warm we would still have glaciers in California. Those retread thousands of years ago during a period of global warming. or maybe you would prefer to call it a return to normal climate :rolleyes:

So if the Earth is warming, then there should be more hurricanes, right?

In the simplistic way to look at it yes. In reality there is no clear answer. Nature never seems to act the way we think she should. Just when we think we have her figured out, she does the opposite. But, in your world you got nature pinned down and know what she is going to do and when. More power to you.

Btw, which is it Frogger, is the Earth not warming at all today? Or is the warming not caused by humans today? Do you see how one day you try to say there is no warming (like today) and some days you say there is warming, but it's "natural?"

It's odd, isn't it. It only makes sense once someone realizes that you view the world through Limbaugh-colored glasses.


If there is a remedial reading course in your town sign up for it. I have never said the Earth isn't getting warmer. I have never said man has had no effect on that temperature increase. I HAVE said that most of the warming is caused by things other than man's actions.

Any way you want to look at it, this year has been a quiet one tropical storm wise.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/tropical.jpg

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/yearly_tcdays_small.jpg



http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/nh_hurr_small.jpg

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ace_trace.jpg

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ace_per.jpg

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/maue_pdi.gif

Look at the charts, Leper. You will see that there is much less hurricane and tropical storm activity than usually and drastically less than was predicted to have occured as a result of Global Warming.

I win. You lose. End of story.

The point is we dont believe we can stop it like you do.

If there is a remedial reading course in your town sign up for it. I have never said the Earth isn't getting warmer.

If you don't dispute that the Earth is getting warmer, then what the hell is your point?

P.S. Sorry, Trav, I deleted the post so I could include Frogger's quote.

The point is we dont believe we can stop it like you do.

Jesus H. Christ! What's that got to do with how many hurricanes there were this year?

Besides the point you are arguing that man is causing global warming and global warming is causing hurricanes? That is the point, I do not agree with, neither does frogger, so he posted some graphs for you to look at.

How many hurricanes there were this year does nothing to show the causation behind global warming. Do you seriously not understand that or do I need to explain further?

WTF? that is what WE have been saying!!!!!! The number of hurricanes or lack ther of proves nothing!!!! it is the global warming advocates, like you, who claim globla warming is related to the amount of hurricanes (only when there is more then expected of course).

WTF? that is what WE have been saying!!!!!! The number of hurricanes or lack ther of proves nothing!!!! it is the global warming advocates, like you, who claim globla warming is related to the amount of hurricanes (only when there is more then expected of course).

Omg, Trav. Okay, I'll explain this to you.

There are two different arguments used by global warming deniers:

#1 - The Earth is not warming at all, and

#2 - The Earth's warming is not caused by humans.

These are two entirely different arguments. Capiche?

Hurricanes are an indicator that the Earth is getting warmer, so it is relevant to argument #1. However, the number of hurricanes does nothing to show the causation of global warming, so it has nothing to do with argument #2.

But you guys are still talking about hurricanes while making argument #2! That's why I'm saying "What the hell is your point?"

I agree the Earth may be warming. That is nothing new. The Earth has warmed and cooled millions of time before the first puff of exhaust went into the air.
you claim the earth is warming because of human activity. the warming caused by humans is causing more hurricanes. Therefore, humans are causing more hurricanes. I disagree.

I agree the Earth may be warming.

Lol, now it's "may" again. You can't even get past argument #1. So it's pointless talking about causation with you...you don't even believe the temperature readings.

At least Frogger is making argument #2. Unfortunately, he tries to use data that allegedly supports argument #1 to support argument #2.

If you don't dispute that the Earth is getting warmer, then what the hell is your point?

P.S. Sorry, Trav, I deleted the post so I could include Frogger's quote.


Leper, do you even know what this thread is about? It is about whether or not Global Warming is causing an increase in the number and severity of hurricanes. It is NOT about whether the Earth is getting warmer. It is NOT about whether man is a major contributing factor in this warming. It is about one thing, and one thing only, whether Global Warming is causing increased major storm activity.

You are continuing to argue other issues and then accusing us of arguing either unfairly or of simply being wrong.

My point and the point of the thread I started is that the warming of the Earth is not causing increased hurricane activity as was predicted.

Leper, do you even know what this thread is about? It is about whether or not Global Warming is causing an increase in the number and severity of hurricanes. It is NOT about whether the Earth is getting warmer. It is NOT about whether man is a major contributing factor in this warming. It is about one thing, and one thing only, whether Global Warming is causing increased major storm activity.

Okay, that's a reasoning that makes sense: you question whether hurricanes are related to warmer temperatures, period...So how do you explain the facts that hurricane season only happens during the warmest months and that hurricanes strengthen when they cross warmer waters?

Saying hurricanes are caused by warm water is an oversimplification Leper. Hurricanes are caused by pressure differentiations. When there is less air pressure in a given area the air rushes upwards. It then moves outward in a circular motion and falls. It the water is uniformly warm this won't happen. The warmth and pressure differentian has to be over a specific area. If all the world's oceans were to uniformly raise temperatures to eighty five degrees Fahrenheit over their entire surfaces there would be no increase in hurricane activity. There has to be a difference between the warmer ocean and surrounding cooler ocean.

I think frogger is right, you seem to be either trying to change what the thread is about or just do not understand what the point of it was.
We know what hurricane season is, and why it is when it is. That is not the issue. The issue is people are claiming that we as humans are causing more hurricanes, which is just totally stupid. We couldn't make or stop hurricanes if we wanted to.

I am still waiting for an answer on who decided the climate should never change again anyway? "climate change" they call it, like it is some new phenomenon. "What are we going to do about climate change?" they ask. WTF? You can do nothing about it! You may as well ask how we can make the Sun rise in the west and set in the east. "We are making it worse!" they say. Making what worse? When did climate change become a bad thing? That's what climate does, it changes. We do not live in a laboratory, we live on a dynamic planet in a universe full of energy and powers we know nothing about, yet somehow if we all change light bulbs we can stop the natural processes of the planet? have you ever actually sat down and though about how absolutely silly that sounds?

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature) of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) are needed[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.[29] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A16) Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_condensation) that powers a tropical cyclone.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere); when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Low amounts of wind shear (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_shear) are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 500 km (310 miles) or 5 degrees of latitude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latitude) away from the equator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equator), allowing the Coriolis effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect) to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15)
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature) of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) are needed[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.[29] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A16) Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_condensation) that powers a tropical cyclone.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere); when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Low amounts of wind shear (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_shear) are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 500 km (310 miles) or 5 degrees of latitude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latitude) away from the equator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equator), allowing the Coriolis effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect) to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15)

Saying hurricanes are caused by warm water is an oversimplification Leper.

I agree. However, I would say temperature of the water is related to hurricane formation. There are several variables other than termperature, of course.

If all the world's oceans were to uniformly raise temperatures to eighty five degrees Fahrenheit over their entire surfaces there would be no increase in hurricane activity. There has to be a difference between the warmer ocean and surrounding cooler ocean.

I agree, but there will always be differences in water temperature as long as the Earth tilts on its axis.

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature) of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) are needed[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.[29] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A16) Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_condensation) that powers a tropical cyclone.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere); when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Low amounts of wind shear (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_shear) are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 500 km (310 miles) or 5 degrees of latitude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latitude) away from the equator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equator), allowing the Coriolis effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect) to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15)
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature) of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) are needed[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.[29] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A16) Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_condensation) that powers a tropical cyclone.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere); when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Low amounts of wind shear (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_shear) are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 500 km (310 miles) or 5 degrees of latitude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latitude) away from the equator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equator), allowing the Coriolis effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_effect) to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15) Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[28] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes#_note-AOML_FAQ_A15)


This is a far cry from "warm water cause hurricane"

I think frogger is right, you seem to be either trying to change what the thread is about or just do not understand what the point of it was.
We know what hurricane season is, and why it is when it is. That is not the issue. The issue is people are claiming that we as humans are causing more hurricanes, which is just totally stupid. We couldn't make or stop hurricanes if we wanted to.

I still don't think you realize that you and Frogger are making very different arguments in this thread. Frogger is saying that extra heat will not cause more hurricanes. You on the other hand are saying that humans are not causing hurricanes, which seems completely unrelated to the original post.

I am still waiting for an answer on who decided the climate should never change again anyway?

Try starting a different thread.

extra heat alone will not cause more hurricanes. The extra heat presumably comes form humans.