Yesterday on the show we discussed a news story detailing some unexplained warming on the planet Neptune. A recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters (surely you're a subscriber) revealed that Neptune has been getting warmer since 1980. Researchers are investigating whether increased output from the Sun might be the cause.

This warming of Neptune must be particularly distressing to Al Gore and the anti-capitalist global warming cabal out there. You see, there has been no recent build-up of greenhouse gasses on Neptune. No deforestation. No contrails from jets. No SUVs. Yet Neptune is warming.

During our conversation Royal opined that the reason might be that Neptune is getting warmer because its orbit is elliptical .. and that it is getting closer to the sun. Royal cited the fact that at some times Pluto's orbit is actually outside that of Neptune due to the odd orbit. Well, Royal was right ... about Pluto being outside of Neptune on occasion. But the reason is that it is Pluto's orbit, not Neptune's, that is elliptical. Here are your details from Wikipedia:

Neptune is about 30 times farther from the sun than the Earth is; it averages 30.06 A.U. from the sun. Occasionally, Neptune's orbit is actually outside that of Pluto; this is because of Pluto's highly eccentric (non-circular) orbit. During this time (20 years out of every 248 Earth years), Neptune is actually the farthest planet from the Sun (and not Pluto). From January 21, 1979 until February 11, 1999, Pluto was inside the orbit of Neptune. Now and until September 2226, Pluto is outside the orbit of Neptune.

Web Guy tells me we got a few emails yesterday telling me that I was an idiot because I didn't know that Neptune has an elliptical orbit. So ... just setting the record straight here.

http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/planets/pluto/

http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/sun/

By: Boortz

Yesterday on the show we discussed a news story detailing some unexplained warming on the planet Neptune. A recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters (surely you're a subscriber) revealed that Neptune has been getting warmer since 1980. Researchers are investigating whether increased output from the Sun might be the cause.

This warming of Neptune must be particularly distressing to Al Gore and the anti-capitalist global warming cabal out there. You see, there has been no recent build-up of greenhouse gasses on Neptune. No deforestation. No contrails from jets. No SUVs. Yet Neptune is warming.

During our conversation Royal opined that the reason might be that Neptune is getting warmer because its orbit is elliptical .. and that it is getting closer to the sun. Royal cited the fact that at some times Pluto's orbit is actually outside that of Neptune due to the odd orbit. Well, Royal was right ... about Pluto being outside of Neptune on occasion. But the reason is that it is Pluto's orbit, not Neptune's, that is elliptical. Here are your details from Wikipedia:

Neptune is about 30 times farther from the sun than the Earth is; it averages 30.06 A.U. from the sun. Occasionally, Neptune's orbit is actually outside that of Pluto; this is because of Pluto's highly eccentric (non-circular) orbit. During this time (20 years out of every 248 Earth years), Neptune is actually the farthest planet from the Sun (and not Pluto). From January 21, 1979 until February 11, 1999, Pluto was inside the orbit of Neptune. Now and until September 2226, Pluto is outside the orbit of Neptune.

Web Guy tells me we got a few emails yesterday telling me that I was an idiot because I didn't know that Neptune has an elliptical orbit. So ... just setting the record straight here.

http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/planets/pluto/

http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/sun/

By: Boortz


Lord, I'm sick of you people latching on to every excuse you get. First off, you never cite sources for your statements. Are we supposed to accept your conclusory statements Neptune is warming without any sources cited?

Second, all planets go through temperature cycles because no planet has a perfectly circular orbit. On top of that, it takes Neptune over a century to make one revolution around the sun, so its temperature cycles are far longer than those of say, Earth. (even your own link says Neptune has 40 year long seasons!) In other words, this is a stupid point.

Third, the relevant "sun is getting brighter" study acknowledges that the sun hasn't been any brighter in the past 20-30 years.

Maybe the Neptunians are burning tooo many fossil fuels eh.

Maybe the Neptunians are burning tooo many fossil fuels eh.
Good to see you back around, Paul. Missed your smiling face.

:)
SMW

what sources have you ever cited Leper? All you say is "scientists".

what sources have you ever cited Leper? All you say is "scientists".


Many, many times I've cited sources on this topic, but the most recent cite is linked below. It's funny you ask because this is from a thread on which you've replied around 10 times to me. I guess that shows how much you pay attention to credible links.

http://allforums.net/showthread.php?t=27247&page=2

It is not a stupid point. Neptune is now further from the sun, yet it is getting warmer. This proves that the sun is getting hotter. That is the reason for the climate change on the Earth.

We don't have to go to the length the hypocrite Al Gore tells us to.

Yes we need to recycle, and do what we can. We are not causing Global Warming.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/08/neptune-news/


all planets go through temperature cycles because no planet has a perfectly circular orbit. On top of that, it takes Neptune over a century to make one revolution around the sun, so its temperature cycles are far longer than those of say, Earth. (even your own link says Neptune has 40 year long seasons!) In other words, this is a stupid point.

Third, the relevant "sun is getting brighter" study acknowledges that the sun hasn't been any brighter in the past 20-30 years.

The temperature of Neptune doesn't change the fact that we've got some unhealthy practices in regards to the enviroment here on Earth.

Why is it hard to believe that global warming is caused by multiple factors, not just one?

May 8, 2007
Neptune News
Filed under: Climate Changes —
Neptune is the planet farthest from the Sun (Pluto is now considered only a dwarf planet), Neptune is the planet farthest from the Earth, and to our knowledge, there has been absolutely no industrialization out at Neptune in recent centuries. There has been no recent build-up of greenhouse gases there, no deforestation, no rapid urbanization, no increase in contrails from jet airplanes, and no increase in ozone in the low atmosphere; recent changes at Neptune could never be blamed on any human influence. Incredibly, an article has appeared in a recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters showing a stunning relationship between the solar output, Neptune’s brightness, and heaven forbid, the temperature of the Earth. With its obvious implications to the greenhouse debate, we are certain you have never heard of the work and never will outside World Climate Report.


In case you have forgotten your basic science lessons on the planets, Neptune orbits the Sun at a distance 30 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun and Neptune revolves around the Sun once every 164.8 Earth years. Neptune has 17 times the mass of the Earth, its atmosphere is primarily composed of hydrogen and helium, with traces of methane that account for the planet’s distinctive blue appearance. It was the only planet discovered mathematically – scientists noted variations in the orbit of Uranus, they calculated the orbit and position of a yet undiscovered planet that could cause the variations noted for Uranus, they determined where the planet should be, and on the first night they searched for it (September 23, 1846), they discovered the large planet sitting within 1 degree of their predictions. The new planet was named for Neptune, Roman god of the sea, given its distinctive blue color. Observations from Earth and a 1989 Voyager 2 flyby have revealed that Neptune’s cloud tops are extremely cold (−346°F) being so far from the Sun while the center of the planet has a temperature of 13,000°F due to high pressure generating extremely hot gases.

In the recent article, Hammel and Lockwood, from the Space Science Institute in Colorado and the Lowell Observatory, note that measurements of visible light from Neptune have been taken at the Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona since 1950. Obviously, light from Neptune can be related to seasons on the planet, small variations in Neptune’s orbit, the apparent tilt of the axis as viewed from the Earth, the varying distance from Neptune to Earth, and of course, changes in the atmosphere near the Lowell Observatory. Astronomers are clever, they are fully aware of these complications, and they adjust the measurements accordingly.

As seen in Figure 1, Neptune has been getting brighter since around 1980; furthermore, infrared measurements of the planet since 1980 show that the planet has been warming steadily from 1980 to 2004. As they say on Neptune, global warming has become an inconvenient truth. But with no one to blame, Hammel and Lockwood explored how variations in the output of the Sun might control variations in the brightness of Neptune.


Figure 1 (a) represents the corrected visible light from Neptune from 1950 to 2006; (b) shows the temperature anomalies of the Earth; (c) shows the total solar irradiance as a percent variation by year; (d) shows the ultraviolet emission from the Sun (Source: Hammel and Lockwood (2007)).

What would seem so simple statistically is complicated by the degrees of freedom in the various time series which is related to the serial correlation in the data (e.g., next year’s value is highly dependent on this year’s value). Nonetheless, they find that the correlation coefficient between solar irradiance and Neptune’s brightness is near 0.90 (1.00 is perfect). The same relationship is found between the Earth’s temperature anomalies and the solar output. Hammel and Lockwood note “In other words, the Earth temperature values are as well correlated with solar irradiance (r = 0.89) as they are with Neptune’s blue brightness (|r| > 0.90), assuming a 10-year lag of the Neptune values.” The temporal lag is needed to account for the large mass of Neptune that would require years to adjust to any changes in solar output.

Hammel and Lockwood conclude that “In summary, if Neptune’s atmosphere is indeed responding to some variation in solar activity in a manner similar to that of the Earth albeit with a temporal lag” then “Neptune may provide an independent (and extraterrestrial) locale for studies of solar effects on planetary atmospheres.”

World Climate Report has covered many articles in the scientific literature showing that variations in solar output, including variations within specific wavelengths (e.g., cosmic, ultraviolet, visible, infrared) are highly correlated with temperature variations near the Earth’s surface. Believe it or not, when the Sun is more energetic and putting out more energy, the Earth tends to warm up, and when the Sun cools down, so does the Earth. The Hammel and Lockwood article reveals that the same is true out at Neptune; when the Sun’s energy increases, Neptune seems to warm up and get brighter given a decade lag.

If for some reason you do not believe that the Sun is a significant player in determining the temperature of the Earth (after all, we are told repeatedly that humans are causing most of the observed warming on the Earth), then asked yourself if you believe that Neptune’s temperature is controlled by the Sun. How is it possible that the Earth’s temperature is so highly correlated with brightness variations from Neptune? The news from Neptune comes to us just weeks after an article was published showing that Mars has warmed recently as well.

If nothing else, we have certainly learned recently that planets undergo changes in their mean temperature, and while we can easily blame human activity here on the Earth, blaming humans for the recent warming on Mars and Neptune would be an astronomical stretch, to say the least.

Reference:

Hammel, H. B., and G. W. Lockwood, 2007. Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth’s temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08203, doi:10.1029/2006GL028764.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/08/neptune-news/

I agree.

[QUOTE=Evakian]The temperature of Neptune doesn't change the fact that we've got some unhealthy practices in regards to the enviroment here on Earth.

QUOTE]

The temperature of Neptune doesn't change the fact that we've got some unhealthy practices in regards to the enviroment here on Earth.

Why is it hard to believe that global warming is caused by multiple factors, not just one? "Because I really love my care...y'know....thats what the tail pipe is for ain't it?"

I agree.

[QUOTE=Evakian]The temperature of Neptune doesn't change the fact that we've got some unhealthy practices in regards to the enviroment here on Earth.

QUOTE]His point was that while human factors aren't responsible for climate change on Neptune, that doesn't mean they're not responsible for climate change on Earth.

The temperature of Neptune doesn't change the fact that we've got some unhealthy practices in regards to the enviroment here on Earth.


Why is it hard to believe that global warming is caused by multiple factors, not just one?

that is what I am saying, why is it so hard for the global warming zeleots to acknowledge that there may be more then one cause of global warming?

And why is it assumed that if you dont believe man is destroying the planet with CO2 that you suddenly dont care for the environment? I want clean air and water and a new clean source of fuel just as much as anyone.
I bet if you went down the list, religious zeleots and global warming maniacs would have many of the same traits. Holier then thou. I am right just by the very nature of my message. I dont have to defend my position, you have to prove me wrong. I may not be able to prove to you I am right, but its better to live the way I say just in case. It goes on and on.

It is not a stupid point. Neptune is now further from the sun, yet it is getting warmer.

That's funny, because the very scientist who writes the study acknowledges that Neptunes seasons have at least been partially responsible for its changes. It's too bad Neptune was discovered relatively recently, because we've never been able to track its changes over the course of a revolution around the sun (Which takes around 160 years, so it has a 40 year long summer)

This proves that the sun is getting hotter. That is the reason for the climate change on the Earth.

We don't have to go to the length the hypocrite Al Gore tells us to.

Yes we need to recycle, and do what we can. We are not causing Global Warming.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/08/neptune-news/


Thank you for the link, now I can read the actual abstract.

Here's a link to the study itself:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

Even the scientist himself admits that his study is "not statistically significant." That's a very important statement from any scientist...it means the study is unreliable. If you read the IPCC website, it relies on "statistically significant" studies.

Another quote (from the scientist himself!) for you to consider: "Seasonal change in Neptune's atmosphere may partially explain" the change in Neptune.

Second, if you look at the graphs in your link, you will see that solar variations have actually decreased over the past 15 years, yet the Earth has gotten warmer.

Third, the study just measures the brightness of Neptune, not the actual temperature. Brightness does not equal temperature.


Here's the BIG conclusion made by the scientist!!! "If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment."

That's definitely a statement to hang your hat on....

Even if you get past the "if" and "may" in that conclusion, then you still have the problem of what's causing the remainder of Earth's warming.

Just for the record, I've never denied that there are other factors affecting the global climate. I'm just not concerned with factors that are outside our control.


G. W. Lockwood

Lowell Observatory, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

Abstract
Long-term photometric measurements of Neptune show variations of brightness over half a century. Seasonal change in Neptune's atmosphere may partially explain a general rise in the long-term light curve, but cannot explain its detailed variations. This leads us to consider the possibility of solar-driven changes, i.e., changes incurred by innate solar variability perhaps coupled with changing seasonal insolation. Although correlations between Neptune's brightness and Earth's temperature anomaly—and between Neptune and two models of solar variability—are visually compelling, at this time they are not statistically significant due to the limited degrees of freedom of the various time series. Nevertheless, the striking similarity of the temporal patterns of variation should not be ignored simply because of low formal statistical significance. If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment.

During our conversation Royal opined that the reason might be that Neptune is getting warmer because its orbit is elliptical .. and that it is getting closer to the sun. Royal cited the fact that at some times Pluto's orbit is actually outside that of Neptune due to the odd orbit. Well, Royal was right ... about Pluto being outside of Neptune on occasion. But the reason is that it is Pluto's orbit, not Neptune's, that is elliptical ... Web Guy tells me we got a few emails yesterday telling me that I was an idiot because I didn't know that Neptune has an elliptical orbit. So ... just setting the record straight here.Boortz is an idiot.

All orbits are elliptical. Even a perfectly circular orbit (not that one is possible in nature) would be an ellipse, albeit one of zero eccentricity.

Boortz is an idiot.

Surely you must be speaking of some other Boortz.

How long have we recorded temp changes on the Earth?

Our plannet is getting a little warmer mainly because the sun is getting hotter.

Yes we should try to recycle and conserve energy, but to say man is the only cause would be dumb.





[QUOTE=Leper]. It's too bad Neptune was discovered relatively recently, because we've never been able to track its changes over the course of a revolution around the sun (Which takes around 160 years, so it has a 40 year long summer)

If you call Boortz and say he is an idiot, and he is wrong, he will put you on the show faster than someone who agrees. Tell him to his face.
Let him come back and try to refute you.

Boortz is an idiot.

All orbits are elliptical. Even a perfectly circular orbit (not that one is possible in nature) would be an ellipse, albeit one of zero eccentricity.

If you call Boortz and say he is an idiot, and he is wrong, he will put you on the show faster than someone who agrees. Tell him to his face.
Let him come back and try to refute you.Boortz isn't here -- but you are. Why don't you try to refute me?

It'd be cheap entertainment. :)

Yes I listen to Boorts sometimes, and I thik to my self that he is an idiot.

However sometimes he makes some very good points.

Well he is probably better off than anyone on these boards, so he must be doing somthing right.

Anyway, I'm not trying to refute you Mr. Almighty Sedan. I bow to your

intelligence! Now you should call up Boortz and teach him a thing or two.

Like I said, he will move you the the front of the line, so you don't have to wait too long.


Boortz isn't here -- but you are. Why don't you try to refute me?

It'd be cheap entertainment. :)

yes researchers have discovered why the ice caps were melting...it was once thought that increasing CO2 levels were the cause by global warming...but this photo has been taken proving without a doubt that polar bears having too many BBQs was the real reason the ice caps were melting...
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~bgmark_quik/bear1.gif