U.S. weighs shootdown of N. Korea missile

By ROBERT BURNS, Associated Press Writer
58 minutes ago


WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is weighing responses to a possible North Korean missile test that include attempting to shoot it down in flight over the Pacific, defense officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

Because North Korea is secretive about its missile operations, U.S. officials say they must consider the possibility that an anticipated test would turn out to be something else, such as a space launch or even an attack. Thus, the Pentagon is considering the possibility of attempting an interception, two defense officials said, even though it would be unprecedented and is not considered the likeliest scenario.

The officials agreed to discuss the matter only on condition of anonymity because of its political sensitivity.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could not say whether the unproven multibillion-dollar U.S. anti-missile defense system might be used in the event of a North Korean missile launch. That system, which includes a handful of missiles that could be fired from Alaska and California, has had a spotty record in tests.

Although shooting down a North Korean missile is a possibility, the Pentagon also must consider factors that would argue against such a response, including the risk of shooting and missing and of escalating tensions further with the communist nation.

Even if there were no attempt to shoot down a North Korean missile, it would be tracked by early warning satellites and radars, including radars based on ships near Japan and ground-based radars in Alaska and California.

Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a U.S. shootdown of a North Korean missile on a test flight or a space launch would draw "very strong international reaction" against the United States. He saw only a small chance that the U.S. would attempt a shootdown.

Signs of North Korean preparations to launch a long-range ballistic missile, possibly with sufficient range to reach U.S. territory, have grown in recent weeks, although it is unclear whether the missile has been fully fueled. U.S. officials said Monday the missile was apparently fully assembled and fueled, but others have since expressed some uncertainty.

Bush administration officials have urged the North Koreans publicly and privately not to conduct the missile test, which would end a moratorium in place since 1999. That ban was adopted after Japan and other nations expressed outrage over an August 1998 launch in which a North Korean missile flew over northern Japan.

At the time of the 1998 launch, the United States had no means of shooting down a long-range missile in flight. Since then, the Pentagon has developed a rudimentary system that it says is capable of defending against a limited number of missiles in an emergency — with a North Korean attack particularly in mind.

The Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative arm, says the Pentagon has spent $91 billion on missile defense over the past two decades.

The 1998 event turned out to be a space launch rather than a missile test; U.S. officials said the satellite failed to reach orbit.

U.S. and international concern about North Korea's missile capability is heightened by its claims to have developed nuclear weapons. It is not known whether they have mastered the complex art of building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit a long-range missile, although in April 2005 the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, told Congress that North Korea was capable of arming a missile with a nuclear warhead. U.S. officials have since called it a "theoretical capability."

No administration official has publicly raised the possibility of bombing the North Korean missile before it can be launched. Jan Lodal, a senior Pentagon policy official during the Clinton administration, said in an interview Tuesday that he would not rule out a pre-emptive strike. He said it would be the surest away of eliminating the threat of being surprised by the launch of a Taepodong-2, an intercontinental ballistic missile that some believe has enough range to reach U.S. territory.

David Wright, a senior scientist at the private Union of Concerned Scientists, said he strongly doubts that the Bush administration could back up its claims of having the capability to shoot down a North Korean missile.

"I consider it to be rhetorical posturing," Wright said. "It currently has no demonstrated capability."

The last time the Pentagon registered a successful test in intercepting a mock warhead in flight was in October 2002. Since then, there have been three unsuccessful attempted intercepts, most recently in February 2005.

Rick Lehner, chief spokesman for the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, said the next intercept test is scheduled for the August-September period, to be followed by another before the end of the year. Lehner said that beginning about a year ago, the system has periodically been placed in "operational status."

Baker Spring, a Heritage Foundation analyst and strong advocate of U.S. missile defenses, said he believes that "in theoretical terms" the U.S. system is a capable of defeating a North Korean missile. And he thinks that if the North Koreans launched on a flight pattern that appeared threatening to the United States, the administration "would be well within its rights" under international law to shoot down the missile.

The Washington Times reported Tuesday that the Pentagon has placed its missile defense system in an active status for potential use.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060621/ap_on_go_pr_wh/missile_defense_korea;_ylt=AjStwvgaTDIEJ1wpor5ib7y s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--

I just hope our missile defense system works then, that would be a good thing.

Dammit.

I just hope our missile defense system works then, that would be a good thing.

Dammit.


If we try to shoot it down and fail it would tend to expose our missile defense as a paper tiger, which could embolden various strategic rivals such as China and Russia.
If we try to shoot it down and succeed, we will show our superiority, and although there will be protests they will amount to nothing other than words. Our allies will be heartened, and our rivals discouraged.
If we do nothing, we maintain the uncertainty. Our rivals will have to guess whether we could have shot it down.
The tests I have heard about have not been very successful. There could well be other tests that have not been made public. Only those who know what the actual capabilities of the system can make an informed decision on what the risks and rewards are in this situation. Hopefully they will make a decision based on facts, and not on wishful thinking.

If they do have their missile capable of reaching whoever wants to attack them, then they will feel safe that no one will mess with them, just as it happens with Russia and China, no one dares to mess with them because they can respond to any attack, only the weak nations are attacked by the Bully we all know.

I hope the US doesn't shoot down the missile just to prove it can - it has no right to do so, unless threatened by it.

there are threat i f the missile are target fo r Canada.but what i f the U.S. shoot the missle but dont hit it?

What if they aim at the U.S. & hit Canada? Would that get your attention? North Korea is a pretty desperate country - nothing's gone right for them in a very long time. Maybe they're replaying the mouse that roared?

They fire a missle that can reach the US and how can anybody tell if it has a nuke on board? If it targets the US we should assume it's live, shoot it down if we can - just to say 'fuck you' to North Korea. Then we should send a 'test' missile right back, 5 seconds after N.Korea launches their test. Just to test if a 5 Megaton Bomb built in the 60's still works.

I just hope our missile defense system works then, that would be a good thing.

Dammit.
Yeah unlike the 1st 5 times they have tested it so far. Our MDS is a joke. The only time it ever shot anything down it when the target had a homing beacon in it.

If they do have their missile capable of reaching whoever wants to attack them, then they will feel safe that no one will mess with them, just as it happens with Russia and China, no one dares to mess with them because they can respond to any attack, only the weak nations are attacked by the Bully we all know.

Flawed analysis. The Chi-Coms would NEVER stand for an out and out invasion of North Korea.

Speaking of the Rooskies and the Chi-Coms, while nuclear weapons ARE a deterrent, the sheer size and population of both countries preclude any kind of direct invasion by the U.S.

As a rule of thumb, the U.S. doesn't out and out invade other countries. Afghanistan was invaded because Al-Qeada was there and wouldn't give up Bin Laden, Iraq got invaded because Saddam was thumbing his nose at some at a dozen U.N. resolutions calling on him to disarm for some 14 years. You really have to try to get the U.S. mad enough to pull an invasion.


I hope the US doesn't shoot down the missile just to prove it can - it has no right to do so, unless threatened by it.

The very fact that North Korea has nuclear weapons IS a threat to the America's, Japan's, Taiwan's and South Korea's interest, period. Shooting down their missile would prove that the U.S. can and will shoot down ICBMs if they consider it a threat and that it would be a very bad idea to start lobbing nukes at the U.S. Not only can the U.S. shoot them down, they can strike back. I hope China pays close attention to that little lesson.


Yeah unlike the 1st 5 times they have tested it so far. Our MDS is a joke. The only time it ever shot anything down it when the target had a homing beacon in it.

How many years did it take before the first plane flew? How many years did it take before the lightbulb became practicle? How many years did it take for jet engine developement? The Manhatten project? Rockets. Satellites. Hell, how many years did it take for computers to become powerful and cheap enough to start being found in the average home and the World Wide Web to become something everyone can access?

Shooting down an ICBM is a rock hard thing to do. But considering just how destructive those things are, it's a worthwhile task.

The one and only defense of an ICBM is its speed. Nothing else. It can't make evasive manuevers and a launch can't go undetected. While it's hard to hit something travelling at the speed ballistic missiles travel, it can be done. Look up data on the new laser weapons the U.S. Air Force has been tinkering with. THAT can and will shoot down any kind of ICBM, dammit.

How many years did it take before the first plane flew?

Several billion, I think.

Maybe North Korea wants their own incentives package.

Declare war & then surrender immediately hoping the world will rush aid in? They don't have to go that far, just ask. Join the rest of the planet. South Korea would rush assistance in a NY minute.

technically the US is still at war with North Korea.

technically the US is still at war with North Korea.Well, not really. Technically, we were never at war with North Korea. It was a 'police action' taken under a UN mandate.

Declare war & then surrender immediately hoping the world will rush aid in? They don't have to go that far, just ask. Join the rest of the planet. South Korea would rush assistance in a NY minute.

Yes, the South Korean government is under the delusion that if they're just NICE enough to Kim Jong whoever, that he'll become a nice guy and everything will just be hunky dory, or something like that.

Geez, you would've thought that after the Jimmy Carter/Madeline Albright we'll give nuclear material just don't go and make bombs with it deal, you'd think the South Koreans would wise up, dammit.

Yes, the South Korean government is under the delusion that if they're just NICE enough to Kim Jong whoever, that he'll become a nice guy and everything will just be hunky dory, or something like that.
I believe es was saying that if Kim Jong Il took steps to join the international community it would benefit North Korea as other countries would provide more aid and assistance to them. South Korea would be first and foremost among those countries, given the natural bond between the people of the two countries.

Yes, the South Korean government is under the delusion that if they're just NICE enough to Kim Jong whoever, that he'll become a nice guy and everything will just be hunky dory, or something like that.

Geez, you would've thought that after the Jimmy Carter/Madeline Albright we'll give nuclear material just don't go and make bombs with it deal, you'd think the South Koreans would wise up, dammit.

Actually they are operating under the belief that Korea is one country. They understand that the United States, Russia, and England divided it into to pieces at the Yalta Conference during World War II, but they feel that they are still historically one country based on thousands of years of history. Many South Koreans have family members in North Korea, and they are not eager to see them suffer. They provide aid, not to support a communist regime, but to support their relatives. Likewise they are not eager to start a war which would result in many deaths.
What they would like is a negotiated re-unification. If that isn't possible now, they will wait until it is possible, and do everything they can to provide humanitarian aid.

North Korea will change gradually when the little guy dies.

They preach in N Korea that they are the most advanced nation on earth and the aid they get is other countries giving offerings for their greatness.

It'd be great to take a few North Koreans around Manhattan just to watch their mouths drop open. Hell the local grocery store would probably have the same effect.

"...Hell the local grocery store would probably have the same effect."

G.I.'s often bring new wives home from countries they've been stationed in. Many of us have seen these young ladies on their first trip into an American grocery store & watch them freak out. I can't remember how many times I've seen a young Vietnamese or Korean woman struggling with an overloaded grocery cart, grabbing everything in sight, just because they're overwhelmed with the abundance of goodies available.
Taking some from North Korea into NYC - assuming they survived the trauma of trans-oceanic flight - would probably cause sensory overload.

These North Koreans are starting to bore me,when they fire a test missile,the US should fire an anti missile missile just to see if they can whack it,it will happen out over the Pacific,no deaths,but Korea told to back off,then sell the rights to Sony,to put on Playstation.

I believe es was saying that if Kim Jong Il took steps to join the international community it would benefit North Korea as other countries would provide more aid and assistance to them.

You mean like the Oil For Food program, where Saddam used the aid money to enrich himself while his people were not only suffering from privation but from his torture chambers and prison camps as well? Is that what you mean by having North Korea joining the "international community?" Is North Korea going to wind up on the U.N. Human Rights committee the way some other real scumbag nations did as well? Sorry Jester, but I have very, very little faith in the "international community," and "aid packages." Dammit.


Actually they are operating under the belief that Korea is one country. They understand that the United States, Russia, and England divided it into to pieces at the Yalta Conference during World War II, but they feel that they are still historically one country based on thousands of years of history. Many South Koreans have family members in North Korea, and they are not eager to see them suffer. They provide aid, not to support a communist regime, but to support their relatives. Likewise they are not eager to start a war which would result in many deaths.
What they would like is a negotiated re-unification. If that isn't possible now, they will wait until it is possible, and do everything they can to provide humanitarian aid.

Fine, Korea is a single nation, or it once was. However, tyranical despots don't, as a rule, make nice and give up the countries they rule, no matter how nice their fellow brethren try to treat them.

The only easy way for Korea to be united is for South Korea to give up its sovereignty. Anything else is going to be a long hard slog, no matter how much you wish to sugar-coat. I think it was Patrick Henry who said that the most precious things demand the biggest sacrifices, it would do South Korea well to note that, dammit.

Fine, Korea is a single nation, or it once was. However, tyranical despots don't, as a rule, make nice and give up the countries they rule, no matter how nice their fellow brethren try to treat them.

The only easy way for Korea to be united is for South Korea to give up its sovereignty. Anything else is going to be a long hard slog, no matter how much you wish to sugar-coat. I think it was Patrick Henry who said that the most precious things demand the biggest sacrifices, it would do South Korea well to note that, dammit.

South Korea is well aware that Kim Jong Il will not just step down. A couple of years ago, Mr. Hyundai, the CEO of Hyundai, visited North Korea and reportedly offered him a billion dollars to do just that, but was refused.
Korea is a country with a history that goes back almost 5000 years. That is a long history. If they must wait a generation or two for re-unification, then they will wait. They have survived multiple conquests by China and Japan, and always regained their independence eventually.
They do things to let their countrymen in the north know what is going on, for instance they insisted that every bag of rice delivered as aid bear the logo, "produced in South Korea. This weakens the North Korean government. When the time is right, they will strike. Assasination of the North Korean leader is not out of the question, and South Korea would do that if possible.
The situation is complicated now by the presence of American troops in South Korea. Many South Koreans are not as thrilled about that as they were a generation ago. It makes it easier to convince the citizens in North Korea that South Korea is a conquered portion of Korea, and that it is essentially a colony of the U.S. Of course that isn't true, but it works in the propaganda.
Another thing that South Korea does is to fight for communication between relatives in the north and south. Even with the secret police in the north listening in, information gets through. It might just be the observation that those family members in the south seem well dressed and and well fed.
The sense of patience that South Korea exhibits is cultural. They have a long history, and they will wait a generation or two if necessary. They have been a colony of either Japan or China in the past for periods of a century or two, and they always eventually manage to revolt or otherwise regain their independence.
You can't expect that Koreans will behave as if they are Americans. They have their own culture and history. If you don't accept that, you will never understand why they behave as they do.

Dear Leader won't resign. He's living in Great Leader's shadow.

I hope the US doesn't shoot down the missile just to prove it can - it has no right to do so, unless threatened by it.

If they launch a missile over someone else's airspace. that country or any of its allies has every right to do so.

And on top of that how is anybody, not part of the launch, going to determine whether the missile is indeed a threat or not. :rolleyes:

If they launch a missile over someone else's airspace. that country or any of its allies has every right to do so.

And on top of that how is anybody, not part of the launch, going to determine whether the missile is indeed a threat or not. :rolleyes:

If it enter someone elses airspace, sure shoot it down! But what if it's fired over international waters??
How to determine if it's a threat? It's a ballistic missile... means no surprises, the trajectory is easily calculated.

International Waters,even better,shoot it down anyway,no harm dun.

If it's not a threat, then the US(or another country with the capabilities) has no right to shot it down.

No they dont,but on this one I have to say,a crackpot regime like N.Korea is a very dangerous animal,at least when the US eventually invades,we wont get all the WMD bullshit,they'll have their proof.

Take it out on the launching pad just as it ignites. That'll keep them from playing around with any more rockets for a while.

If it enter someone elses airspace, sure shoot it down! But what if it's fired over international waters??
How to determine if it's a threat? It's a ballistic missile... means no surprises, the trajectory is easily calculated.

Ballistic missiles can carry 'payloads'. And how does one, anyone know what the payload is?

Given NK's geographical position the only way they can launch it into international waters is to launch it over Japan.

Oh 347, thats good, I like that.Nothing like upping the ante,I dont think the US is ready to deal with NK, just yet.

Ballistic missiles can carry 'payloads'. And how does one, anyone know what the payload is?


Noboby knows - but they know where it's going!