Dunkirk101
02-02-2005, 05:52 AM
Its starting to come to light that maybe this isn't such a good idea :(
In China, it's a boy-boy-boy-girl world
Culture favors males, but growing gender imbalance could spark violence, economic woes, experts fear
By Michael A. Lev
Tribune foreign correspondent
Published January 30, 2005
http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2005-01/16073677.jpg
HAINAN ISLAND, China -- Anyone paying attention would notice something odd about the elementary schools here. What the government and parents are awakening to--belatedly--is the danger inherent in what they see.
There are too many boys.
On the morning that first-semester grades were posted at Haikou City Ying Cai school, students hustled down staircases into class formations.
Boy-boy-boy-girl they scampered.
Boy-boy-boy-girl they lined up.
In one 3rd-grade class, a parent noted, there are 50 students, but only 12 or 13 girls.
The same imbalance can be found at other schools on the island.
"There are 56 kids in my class but only 15 girls," said 9-year-old Zhu De Zhao, a boy.
"There are 62 kids in my class but only 16 girls," said 9-year-old boy Wei Gang Jun.
A normal sex ratio at birth should be about 106 males per 100 females, but in China about 120 boys are born for every 100 girls. On culturally conservative Hainan Island, the ratio is above 130 boys to 100 girls.
The sex balance is seriously out of skew because of a strong cultural preference for boys and a population-control policy that limits most urban couples to one child and rural couples to two. There is also easy access to ultrasound machines and abortions, so when mothers learn they are pregnant with a girl, many are tempted to terminate and try again.
Too many bachelors
The fear is that too many boys today means too many bachelors in the future, which also means too many unhappy, unattached men looking for a place to fit in. If this is true, researchers warn, it's not hard to predict a startling increase in violent activity that could affect overall social stability and derail China's economic progress.
It is a scientifically provable theory, said political scientist Valerie Hudson of Brigham Young University. And it's backed up by what any high school graduate can recall: "When guys got together, did they sometimes do stupider and more reckless things than when they were alone?" she asked.
The phenomenon of too many boys could have been avoided, but the issue was overshadowed by China's overall exploding population. The one-child policy, initiated in the 1980s, gets credit for preventing the addition of 300 million people to China's population of 1.3 billion.
Now the government is waking up to the gender gap. China's leaders have begun highlighting the problem and taking initial steps to prevent sex-selection abortions. But significant progress won't occur unless China can change its ingrained preference for boys. If that seems unlikely in the short term, a better solution will be to relax population-control regulations to allow parents more chances to have a boy, said Li Yongping, a demographer at Peking University.
"People want a boy," Li said. "In the villages, having a boy means status. If you don't have one, you are looked down on by your neighbors. . . . That's the culture."
The first steps to address the issue have been small. Using ultrasound machines solely to detect the sex of a fetus was banned years ago, but on Hainan it is now a criminal offense. In Guiyang City on the mainland, all ultrasounds including those for health reasons have been banned after the 14th week of pregnancy, when sex can be determined.
But bans are easy to circumvent. When women want a boy and are willing to pay for the information, ultrasounds take place: a discreet nod from the operator tells parents what they want to know.
Li said there are some pilot programs in place to promote the value of having girls, or to give money to families without sons, but the only way to make progress is to permit parents more chances to have a boy. In his discussions with the State Family Planning Commission, Li said officials have signaled a willingness to consider relaxing the one-child policy.
The preference for boys "can't be changed by economic policies," Li said.
Male preference runs deep
The reasons for male preference run deep. It begins with the desire to carry on the family line. But in China--an ancient, traditional agrarian society--families need boys to tend the fields. Sons also care for their aging parents. Women are married off to their husbands' villages. Thus, a family with no sons is imperiled.
While China is urbanizing and its economy advancing, in the vast countryside there is still no government social safety net to replace the role of the son. Particularly in tradition-bound areas such as the southern island of Hainan, the preference for boys remains almost unquestioned.
The painful irony of the situation is that parents, in their zeal to have boys who will assume the role of family provider and protector, may find those valued sons moving away in search of a spouse. "I'm worried about my son," said one mother of a Ying Cai school student. "When he grows up there will be very difficult competition to find a wife."
Concerns also have been raised that such desperation for wives will lead to trafficking of women.
An exploration of the dangers of a gender imbalance was made in the book "Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population." Co-written by Hudson of BYU, the book concluded that China will have about 30 million unmarriable men in 20 years. They will be, almost literally, looking for trouble.
These "bare branches," as they are known in Chinese, will be the least eligible bachelors, "losers in societal competition," the authors put it. Poor, under-educated and unattached, they will be outsiders and therefore at greater risk to fall afoul.
The book connects studies that show the preponderance of violence in society is committed by males 15 to 35 years old, and that unmarried men are far more likely to commit murder and rape. Being disadvantaged is another risk factor, exacerbated by the fact that outsiders tend to band together, and men in groups are more likely to exhibit antisocial behavior.
The crucial factor is the effect of bachelorhood on behavior. "The reason that's important is that only when they are married do they begin to have a stake in a system of law and order that will protect their loved ones," Hudson said.
One question is whether the responsibility bred into Chinese men to care for their parents would be strong enough to mitigate their feelings of alienation. It may be that urban men, whose parents are more likely to have pensions, are more likely to go off the rails than rural men, who will continue to feel responsible for their parents' well-being. Hudson also pointed out that nothing would stop bare branches engaging in criminal activity from sending money home to their parents.
She also cautioned that the theory only identifies risk factors; it does not predict what will happen. But the book highlights one intriguing historical precedent.
In the 1850s in northern China, after decades of flood, drought and starvation in which families turned to female infanticide to save money and increase their security, as many as 25 percent of the men were unable to marry. Some of these men organized into small criminal gangs that eventually combined into small armies.
At its peak, the Nien Rebellion included as many as 100,000 of these bare branches who were in at least nominal control of territory inhabited by 2 million to 6 million people.
It took years for the Qing Dynasty to put down the rebellion. <end>
I think these guys are headed for more trouble than they planned for don't ya think :eek:
Heres the link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0501300336jan30,1,6578828.story?coll=chi-homepagenews-utl
In China, it's a boy-boy-boy-girl world
Culture favors males, but growing gender imbalance could spark violence, economic woes, experts fear
By Michael A. Lev
Tribune foreign correspondent
Published January 30, 2005
http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2005-01/16073677.jpg
HAINAN ISLAND, China -- Anyone paying attention would notice something odd about the elementary schools here. What the government and parents are awakening to--belatedly--is the danger inherent in what they see.
There are too many boys.
On the morning that first-semester grades were posted at Haikou City Ying Cai school, students hustled down staircases into class formations.
Boy-boy-boy-girl they scampered.
Boy-boy-boy-girl they lined up.
In one 3rd-grade class, a parent noted, there are 50 students, but only 12 or 13 girls.
The same imbalance can be found at other schools on the island.
"There are 56 kids in my class but only 15 girls," said 9-year-old Zhu De Zhao, a boy.
"There are 62 kids in my class but only 16 girls," said 9-year-old boy Wei Gang Jun.
A normal sex ratio at birth should be about 106 males per 100 females, but in China about 120 boys are born for every 100 girls. On culturally conservative Hainan Island, the ratio is above 130 boys to 100 girls.
The sex balance is seriously out of skew because of a strong cultural preference for boys and a population-control policy that limits most urban couples to one child and rural couples to two. There is also easy access to ultrasound machines and abortions, so when mothers learn they are pregnant with a girl, many are tempted to terminate and try again.
Too many bachelors
The fear is that too many boys today means too many bachelors in the future, which also means too many unhappy, unattached men looking for a place to fit in. If this is true, researchers warn, it's not hard to predict a startling increase in violent activity that could affect overall social stability and derail China's economic progress.
It is a scientifically provable theory, said political scientist Valerie Hudson of Brigham Young University. And it's backed up by what any high school graduate can recall: "When guys got together, did they sometimes do stupider and more reckless things than when they were alone?" she asked.
The phenomenon of too many boys could have been avoided, but the issue was overshadowed by China's overall exploding population. The one-child policy, initiated in the 1980s, gets credit for preventing the addition of 300 million people to China's population of 1.3 billion.
Now the government is waking up to the gender gap. China's leaders have begun highlighting the problem and taking initial steps to prevent sex-selection abortions. But significant progress won't occur unless China can change its ingrained preference for boys. If that seems unlikely in the short term, a better solution will be to relax population-control regulations to allow parents more chances to have a boy, said Li Yongping, a demographer at Peking University.
"People want a boy," Li said. "In the villages, having a boy means status. If you don't have one, you are looked down on by your neighbors. . . . That's the culture."
The first steps to address the issue have been small. Using ultrasound machines solely to detect the sex of a fetus was banned years ago, but on Hainan it is now a criminal offense. In Guiyang City on the mainland, all ultrasounds including those for health reasons have been banned after the 14th week of pregnancy, when sex can be determined.
But bans are easy to circumvent. When women want a boy and are willing to pay for the information, ultrasounds take place: a discreet nod from the operator tells parents what they want to know.
Li said there are some pilot programs in place to promote the value of having girls, or to give money to families without sons, but the only way to make progress is to permit parents more chances to have a boy. In his discussions with the State Family Planning Commission, Li said officials have signaled a willingness to consider relaxing the one-child policy.
The preference for boys "can't be changed by economic policies," Li said.
Male preference runs deep
The reasons for male preference run deep. It begins with the desire to carry on the family line. But in China--an ancient, traditional agrarian society--families need boys to tend the fields. Sons also care for their aging parents. Women are married off to their husbands' villages. Thus, a family with no sons is imperiled.
While China is urbanizing and its economy advancing, in the vast countryside there is still no government social safety net to replace the role of the son. Particularly in tradition-bound areas such as the southern island of Hainan, the preference for boys remains almost unquestioned.
The painful irony of the situation is that parents, in their zeal to have boys who will assume the role of family provider and protector, may find those valued sons moving away in search of a spouse. "I'm worried about my son," said one mother of a Ying Cai school student. "When he grows up there will be very difficult competition to find a wife."
Concerns also have been raised that such desperation for wives will lead to trafficking of women.
An exploration of the dangers of a gender imbalance was made in the book "Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population." Co-written by Hudson of BYU, the book concluded that China will have about 30 million unmarriable men in 20 years. They will be, almost literally, looking for trouble.
These "bare branches," as they are known in Chinese, will be the least eligible bachelors, "losers in societal competition," the authors put it. Poor, under-educated and unattached, they will be outsiders and therefore at greater risk to fall afoul.
The book connects studies that show the preponderance of violence in society is committed by males 15 to 35 years old, and that unmarried men are far more likely to commit murder and rape. Being disadvantaged is another risk factor, exacerbated by the fact that outsiders tend to band together, and men in groups are more likely to exhibit antisocial behavior.
The crucial factor is the effect of bachelorhood on behavior. "The reason that's important is that only when they are married do they begin to have a stake in a system of law and order that will protect their loved ones," Hudson said.
One question is whether the responsibility bred into Chinese men to care for their parents would be strong enough to mitigate their feelings of alienation. It may be that urban men, whose parents are more likely to have pensions, are more likely to go off the rails than rural men, who will continue to feel responsible for their parents' well-being. Hudson also pointed out that nothing would stop bare branches engaging in criminal activity from sending money home to their parents.
She also cautioned that the theory only identifies risk factors; it does not predict what will happen. But the book highlights one intriguing historical precedent.
In the 1850s in northern China, after decades of flood, drought and starvation in which families turned to female infanticide to save money and increase their security, as many as 25 percent of the men were unable to marry. Some of these men organized into small criminal gangs that eventually combined into small armies.
At its peak, the Nien Rebellion included as many as 100,000 of these bare branches who were in at least nominal control of territory inhabited by 2 million to 6 million people.
It took years for the Qing Dynasty to put down the rebellion. <end>
I think these guys are headed for more trouble than they planned for don't ya think :eek:
Heres the link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0501300336jan30,1,6578828.story?coll=chi-homepagenews-utl